Experts predict a noticeable decline in the Russian car market

By the end of 2025, sales of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) in Russia will decrease by 15 percent, to 1.4 million units. This forecast was given by the Association of European Businesses (AEB), writes TASS. This is approximately the same amount as was sold in 2016, and twice as much as in 2022.

About 1.4 million cars and LCVs sold is the average forecast, the AEB clarified. Experts expect that in the first half of the year the market will decline most noticeably under the pressure of negative factors, and in the second it may begin to improve due to an increase in local production.

Among the factors influencing the market, the most significant role is played by sanctions, a high key rate, which makes loans less accessible to the population, and a growing recycling fee. At the same time, pent-up demand remains: after a lull in 2022, sales volumes grew significantly every year.

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Active work on import substitution of parts and the growth of local assembly of machines also have a positive effect. However, according to experts, the range of brands and models will begin to decline in 2025. Several not very popular Chinese manufacturers may leave the market.

According to the AEB, 1.65 million passenger cars and light commercial vehicles were sold in Russia in 2024. This is 46 percent more than in 2023.

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