Avilon: the number of automobile brands in Russia will be reduced by 50% by 2028

Brands with low sales and without localization of production, which in the current conditions is becoming the key to the survival of brands in our country, will have to leave the Russian market, explain car dealers and experts interviewed by Motor magazine. In just a couple of years, about 10 automobile brands may remain in our country, and owners of cars of departed brands will have very big problems with spare parts and resale, they warn.

By the end of 2027, up to half of the automobile brands currently operating in Russia will be forced to curtail their activities. This forecast was expressed in a conversation with Motor magazine by Yuri Blinov, marketing director of the Avilon automobile group.

“According to my estimate, in 2026-2027 the number of actually active automobile brands in Russia may decrease by 30-50%. This is especially true for brands without localization, without a stable model range, without clear logistics of spare parts and without sufficient sales volume per dealership,” said Blinov.

There will be a strict division in the market: there will be a limited group of brands that form the main sales, have localization, a clear warranty and service policy, access to spare parts, financial programs and normal dealer economics. And there will be a long tail of brands that can legally be present on the market, but in fact will cease to be full-fledged players, he predicted.

Only 10 brands do not incur losses to dealers

President of the Russian Automobile Dealers Association (ROAD) Alexey Podshchekoldin said at the annual ROAD Convention in Moscow that with the current market size, the break-even threshold for the dealer business in terms of sales volume is provided by only 10 brands.

Belgee plant
Belgee

“There are 60 brands operating in a market of 1.3-1.4 million cars per year. And, as you know, you need to sell at least 30 cars a month. We probably only have 10 brands that overcome this value, and not all of them,” Podshchekoldin said in an interview with Motor magazine.

In Russia, the current market leaders Chery, Geely, Haval and Changan will undoubtedly continue to operate – under their original brands, or specially created ones, auto expert and ex-head of ROAD Oleg Moseev has no doubt.

“It’s obvious that these are converted sub-brands, Chery. This is Haval, this is Geely, this is most likely Changan, which will somehow come to normal localization. Perhaps a couple more companies, and I hope Hongqi will also be in this cohort. And the rest – they’re all to-go. Accordingly, dealers of these brands are also taking away,” Moseev told a correspondent of Motor magazine.

Tenet T4L
Tenet

It must be remembered that Chinese brands are backed by funding from the Chinese government or the region in which the parent company is based, and if the amount of subsidies to support the Russian representative office has to be consistently increased, the Chinese authorities and corporate management may get tired of it, he added.

“As soon as they understand that leaving Russia is easily compensated for them by the market of a conditional Nigeria, they will do it, because it is obvious that here it will be more difficult and difficult for them, where they can develop. This is primarily Africa,” Moseev believes.

According to the analytical agency Autostat, the leaders in the market for new passenger cars in Russia in the first quarter of 2026 were Lada, Haval, Tenet, Geely, Belgee, Changan, Toyota, Jetour, Jaecoo and Solaris.

We have to leave

Vice President of ROAD Andrey Petrenko believes that in the next two years the car dealership business in Russia will face difficult times, and the main income will come from car servicing.

“With new cars there will be an ambush – there will be a war to the death. In short, we need to go somewhere for two years. Exactly, until something changes. Leaving means reducing costs and communicating with your customer base. Although I have now sold my business, I left the service part. These 10 thousand clients with whom I communicate, they bring me quite a good profit,” Petrenko explained at the ROAD conference.

Kaiyi E5
Kaiyi

The market is moving from a period of “many brands and many hopes” to a period of “fewer brands, more responsibility,” and the ones who will survive in this situation are not those who started loudly, but those who know how to count, manage and build a system, stated Yuri Blinov from Avilon.

Brands that cannot compete on price, product, warranty, residual value and service will gradually lose their dealer network, he added.

“At risk, first of all, are brands that sell little, have one or two products without a clear advantage, do not invest in the brand, do not provide a spare parts warehouse and do not provide the dealer with a clear economy,” concluded Blinov.

Care will extend over time

According to the editor-in-chief of the Za Rulem magazine, Maxim Kadakov, in the coming years, automobile brands that sell less than 5-7 thousand cars per year will leave the Russian market.

“Everyone has different internal resources: the Chinese side is very supportive of its exporters, and some of them will be able to work indefinitely. First of all, “small circulation” companies will leave. For example, Haima and Skywell have already done this. If relations between Russia and China remain smooth, there are no regulatory and other changes, we will have the conditional 10 brands by 2028-2029, not earlier,” Kadakov noted in an interview with Motor magazine.