According to the specialist, sales of new cars in Russia are stuck at 1.3-1.4 million units per year.
Market capacity is determined by only two basic factors – the purchasing power of the population and the price/availability of cars. Everything else: key rates, recycling fees, loans, car sharing, new Russian brands, discounts and special prices – only redistributes demand within the market between brands, models and regions, but does not affect the total annual volume, noted the head of the Avtostat agency, Sergei Tselikov, in his Telegram channel.
The current 1.3-1.4 million sales are an equilibrium state between what people can pay and how much cars cost, the expert believes.
To sell significantly more, you need one of two things. First: increase the purchasing power of the population – income growth should outpace the growth of expenses by 15-20% per year for several years.
Second: to make cars really more accessible – for this, inexpensive, simple and reliable foreign cars of the Kia Rio, Hyundai Solaris, Volkswagen Polo, Skoda Rapid, Renault Logan/Sandero class must return to the market. At present, Tselikov clarifies, the base price of such a machine should be about 1.5 million rubles.
Without fulfilling at least one of these conditions, the expert emphasizes, no manipulations with rates, scrap or assembly localization will shift the total sales volume above the equilibrium level.
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