Auto expert Kadakov: car sales will fall in May

The increase in prices for new cars in Russia by the summer of 2026 will be up to 8% in certain segments, surveyed car dealers and experts told Motor magazine. The situation with prices will depend primarily on the ruble exchange rate, since the increase in recycling fees and taxes has already been reflected in them. Sellers will primarily refuse discounts and promotions.

Over the past week (April 6-12), the car market has seriously collapsed, Sergei Tselikov, general director of the analytical agency Autostat, said in his Telegram channel.

“Last week, 24.9 thousand new passenger cars were registered. This is 20% less than the week before. But you shouldn’t worry too much about the minus,” Tselikov wrote.

According to him, such a strong drop was recorded after the strong result of the previous week, which was affected by high car sales at the end of the quarter. In general, the new car market in Russia is in a slow recovery stage.

Tenet crossovers
Tenet

At the end of the quarter, the highest sales are always recorded, and their subsequent decline does not indicate a further catastrophic decline, but growth in the Russian car market cannot be expected, Oleg Moseev, an auto expert and former head of the Russian Automobile Dealers Association, noted in an interview with Motor magazine.

The main factor in the price increase is the ruble exchange rate

“For now, it is hardly possible to say that we have begun an era of recovery. But it’s also impossible to say that we have enormous problems. Now the main factor influencing prices is the ruble exchange rate. The story with VAT and recycling fees is already reflected in the price. The ruble exchange rate is still favorable, and income from rising oil prices will support it,” Moseev explained.

There will be no excess supply of cars in the Russian market in 2026, and prices will go up if demand grows, primarily due to the abolition of discounts and special offers, he predicts.

“We have inflation statistics of around 6% per annum, respectively, if we are talking about 3 months, it turns out to be a 1.5% increase in prices,” Moseev predicted.

Belgee X50
Belgee

Representatives of large dealer holdings state that the Russian car market is now living in the logic of a slow rise in prices, and since the beginning of the year, prices have already increased by 2-3%.

“The base scenario for June-August is a price increase of another 3-5% in the mass market. For certain models, especially in parallel imports and in more expensive segments, the increase could reach 8%,” Yuri Blinov, marketing director of the Avilon automobile group, told Motor magazine.

Some market players have not yet fully included the increase in recycling fees in retail prices, notes Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine.

“If we are talking about prices that are reflected in price lists, we will see an increase of 10% year-on-year. Based on the results of the first half of the year, we will record a price increase of 3−6%. Since the beginning of the year, many automakers have already raised car prices: some by 50 thousand rubles, others by 100 thousand rubles,” predicts Kadakov in an interview with Motor magazine.

April and May will be worse than March

According to Kadakov, high sales of new cars in March were also due to alternative imports: many Russians rushed to bring cars from abroad before the planned closure of the possibility of cheaper customs clearance through Kyrgyzstan and other EAEU countries on April 1. The Ministry of Industry and Trade did not refuse to introduce this measure, but it did not take effect from April 1.

Jetour T2
Jetour

“People bought Toyota, Mazda and Honda in anticipation of an increase in the recycling fee for cars from the EAEU countries. I think that both for half a year and for a year, sales will remain at the level of 2025, but with a different distribution by month. There are few working days in May. April, I think, will also be calmer than March – it’s difficult to sell more cars in April than in March, there will be no growth,” Kadakov said.

The market for new cars in Russia has reached an equilibrium state: now there is no need to talk about either a “buyer’s market” (when the client can easily negotiate favorable terms of the deal) or a “seller’s market” (when the dealer can easily raise prices), he believes.

“Dealers have no room to give in, nowhere to move. Discount programs apply when provided by the manufacturer or distributor. The market is now in an equilibrium state: it is not controlled by the seller or the buyer, but by the market situation and monetary policy,” concluded Kadakov.