Car sales in Russia will fall in 2025, and this is the base scenario

Interfax reports this with reference to the forecast of experts from the analytical agency Autostat. Analysts suggest that by the end of next year, 1.43 million passenger cars will be sold in the country, which will correspond to a drop of 10 percent compared to the result of 2024 – this scenario is considered the baseline. The pessimistic forecast is a drop in sales by 20 percent, to 1.27 million cars.

As for this year, the car market will reach 1.59 million units, which is one and a half times higher than last year. Autostat analysts do not yet see prospects for car market growth in the near future, suggesting that under an optimistic scenario, the same number of new passenger cars will be sold in Russia next year as this year. The base scenario is 1.43 million cars, and the pessimistic scenario is 1.27 million.

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“We previously had a more optimistic forecast for next year,” explained agency director Sergei Tselikov during Autostat Analytic Day. “We built models, did surveys, and so far this general expectation is still a decrease. Our average forecast now suggests a decline of 10 percent by this year if nothing changes.”

At the same time, Tselikov himself expects some “tectonic changes” in the market in 2025, due to which it could go either positive or negative. “I think it will not fail very much, and we will not go below the pessimistic forecast under any circumstances. We can go up, but for this to happen, political factors must be realized,” he added.

As for the current month, December will most likely end with 140-145 thousand cars sold. This is 15-20 percent more than dealers managed to sell in November.

We are waiting in Russia: Chinese news